Everyday Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The average figure of per-day killings per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative data. However, security experts have warned that murder figures could fail to point to enhanced national safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably important,” the President said, adding that the previous month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, security experts warned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it may mask days when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.