A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
