Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.