‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Stock.
The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's households.
As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.
"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.
Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are adopting coal and wood and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers report a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.
Government Stance
Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a ministry representative.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.
According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.
India imports 90% of its oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of stockpiling.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.
